What is drought?

Drought is a natural phenomenon that does not have a rigorous and universal definition. It can be understood as a rainfall deficit for an extensive period of time, resulting in water scarcity with significant negative repercussions on ecosystems and socioeconomic activities. The concept depends on the climate and hydrological characteristics of each region and the type of impacts that are produced. In terms of Brazil, six months without any rainfal in the Brazilian Semi-arid, for instance, are considered normal. If that occurred in the South or in the Amazon, it would be catastrophic.

What are the main consequences of the phenomenon?

Drought is considered one of the main limiting factors that affect the food security and survival of over two billion people in the whole planet. The production efficiency in the regions that are most susceptible to dry spells depends on a series of measures to monitor and mitigate the negative effects of such phenomenon, through the rational and sustainable use of water resources, edaphic (soil) resources and biodiversity.

Since when there have been records of droughts in Brazil?

The first reports of droughts in the Brazilian Northeast date from the end of the 16th century (1583/1585), when about 5,000 Indigenous persons were driven away from the hinterlands due to hunger. Since then, countless instances have already been recorded, and the periods that were considered the most drastic were the years of 1615, 1692/93, 1709/11, 1723/27, 1744/45, 1776/78, 1790/93, 1831, 1844/46, and 1877/79.

It is estimated that for every 100 years there are between 18 to 20 years of intense droughts. The 20th century was one of most drastic, having recorded 27 years of droughts, one of which was the period of 1903/1904, when the Brazilian Budget Law started to include a share aimed at construction work against droughts. Then in the years 1979/1984 the longest and broadest drought in the history of the Brazilian Northeast took place, and intense dry seasons were observed in 1993, 1998, 2001 and 2012/2014.

What measures have been taken to mitigate the effect of droughts?

In 1891, an article that compelled the State to help areas hit by natural disasters, inclusing drougts, was included in the Brazilian Constitution. Activities to fight the effects of this phenomenon - such as building weirs and dams, drilling wells, aid with food distribution, establishing work fronts, etc. - started in 1909, with the creation of the Inspectorship of Work against Droughts (Iocs), later named National Department of Work against Droughts (DNOCS). Since then, several measures have been taken, so that even though the worst drought of the last 50 years has just taken place, the effects for the populations were minimized due to existing public policy.

In Brazil, have droughts stopped being limited to the Brazilian Northeast?

In 2014, São Paulo experienced the biggest drought of the last 80 years. In 2012, about 650 cities of the Brazilian South were in a state of emergency because of droughts: 142 cities in Paraná, 375 in Rio Grande do Sul and 133 in Santa Catarina. Despite it never having been an exclusively northeastern phenomenon, these areas have apparently grown. According to some scholars, since 1950 drylands have grown almost 2% per decade in the whole world, and Brazil is not an exception. However, problems such as those that São Paulo state faced in 2014, especially in their water supply, can be attributed not only to climate change but also to urban growth and insufficient supply infrastructure.

How different is the phenomenon in the Brazilian Northeast?

It is said that the Semi-arid Region's greatest problem is drought. However, in many places in the region there is an annual rainfall of up to 800 mm - an amount that, in other semi-arid regios of the world, allows a higher agricultural production and consequently less poverty.

It is thus understood that the biggest problem of the Brazilian Semi-arid region is not the amount of rainfall, but how rains are distributed in time and space.

It is common, for example, that one trimester records almost 90% of the annual precipitation. Similarly, considering a crop cycle, the amount of precipitated rain would often be enough for a satisfactory harvest if it was better throughout the cycle. However, it is concentrated in one or two rains and ends up not allowing for suitable production and harvest.

Do droughts occur in the entire region known as the Brazilian Northeast?

The frequent phenomenon of droughts is restricted to the semi-arid portion of Brazil's Northeast, an area of 969,598.4 km² that encompasses 1,133 municipalities in the states of Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahia, in addition to the north of Minas Gerais.  In coastal areas, the rainfal index is quite higher in light of the humidity that comes from the ocean. The same wind could take water to the hinterlands, since the northeastern semi-arid region is not surrounded by mountain chains that bar wet winds. However, the sea breeze is not strong enough to cause rains in regions beyond the 100 kilometers of the coastal strip.

Is it possible to use ground water in the region?

A large portion of the Brazilian Semi-arid Region is on crystalline basement. Aquifers in those areas characteristically store water discontinously. The water is located in cracks in the rock, which forms small reservoirs and, in contact with the substratum, are easily mineralized.  In other words, the water becomes saline or brackish, and nearly always is only fit to have animals quench their thirst. In other words, generally speaking, the wells have little water and the water, little quality.

Shouldn't irrigation be a solution for the Brazilian Northeast?

In some areas of the Brazilian Semi-arid, despite their low rainfall, a poignant irrigated agriculture has been practised, especially to produce fruits for exports. The lower middle São Francisco river valley, on the border of the states of Bahia and Pernambuco, and the Açu valley, in Rio Grande do Norte, are good examples of such success in agriculture. However, this cannot be extended for the whole semi-arid region. Expanding irrigated areas is hindered by limitations in terms of soil and water availability that do not allow irrigation to be perfomed in the whole region. There are studies that actually point that only 5% of the Brazilian Semi-arid region meets the minimum requirements for the use of irrigation.

What is the difference between fighting and coping with droughts?

Since the 1980s, it has been understood that it was not possible to "fight" or "tackle" droughts. As the outlook on the issue has changed, the word "coping" has seemed more appropriate. The consensus is that, while on the one hand, the natural phenomenon has always occurred and will also become worse, and thus fighting it is pointless; on the other hand, proposals can be developed and alternatives can be tried based on the notion that it is possible and necessary to coexist with it.

Can't droughts be forecast?

Specialists affirm that, even with all the modern apparatus of equipment and technology, there is no confidence for forecasts beyond 90 days. However, historical records indicate that the droughts are cyclical, happening as increasingly more extreme phenomena every 13 years, approximately. Therefore, they cannot be forecast with precision, but it is possible that governments and populations prepare to minimize their effects.

What were the effects of the 2011/2013 drought?

As a consequence of that drought, which was considered the biggest in the last 50 years, harvests in all areas of the Brazilian semi-arid region were frustrated; a large portion of the livestock was lost, especially cattle - not only due to deaths but also as animals were sold for very low prices to other regions -; there were major pasture losses; predatory use of native Caatinga plants as animal feed; and death of many native species (in given areas, such deaths reached 30 to 40% of all plants). What was different from other droughts of similar proportions was that in the last one, the mass exodus of the population of given areas or looting in fairs and markets were not observed. There were also no deaths of people due to hunger or thirst. As there is no definitive solution for the problem, that is largely due to the income supplementation policies that were in place in the country at the time.

Can we say that the inhabitants of the Brazilian Semi-arid region are more prepared?

Those who live in the Brazilian Semi-arid region already live with droughts and, one way or another, they seek mechanisms to cope with their effects. Spending eight to ten months a year without rain is common. In a drought of such proportions, it is always difficult to be prepared. Storing water for human and animal consumption, cultivating more tolerant plants, the implementation of strategic reservoirs to feed livestock, and the conservation of forage plants as hay and silage are still incipient practices that are nevertheless already observed in many areas and that minimize the damages caused by droughts.

Which solutions can be pointed with respect to coexisting with droughts?

There is no out-of-the-box, one-size-fits-all solution. However, it is essential that families have access to water for human consumption, for animal consumption and, in some cases, for some production. Moreover, a plot of land with enough size and quality to support farmers and their families is necessary. Once there are policies that ensure that, and once it is understood that living in such environment requires diversified production systems with food crops, cash crops and small-scale animal farming, it becomes increasingly more necessary to work with more resistant plants (including species from the native flora), more rustic animals even if they are less productive, and work in harmony with the environment where one lives. Another crucial issue is effective technical assistance and rural extension.